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北京雾霾之战 Beijing vs. Smog

时间:2017-02-16 10:03

作者:常纪文

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近几年,京津冀地区尤其是北京的雾霾污染,因为波及面广,程度严重,引起国内外的广泛关注。雾霾污染既伤害国民健康,也损害外来资本和外来人才进入的积极性,还会对资本市场产生冲击。更为重要的是,频发的区域雾霾反映出中国传统发展的模式及其可持续性受到了前所未有的挑战。

In recent years, heavy smog in the vast Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region , and Beijing in particular, has aroused wide concern from both China and the world. The pollution harms public health, intimidates foreign investment and talent and upsets the capital market. Most importantly, frequent smog presents unprecedented challenges to the sustainability of China’s conventional development mode.

雾霾来自何方?

WHERE DOES THE SMOG COME FROM?

京津冀地区雾霾的形成,主要来自工业、机动车和建筑扬尘排放的颗粒物、氮氧化物、硫氧化物等污染物,也来自于农业和家庭生活排放。对于北京来说,除了来自天津和河北特别是河北的工业输送外,雾霾的形成主要根源还是自己长期发展过程中形成的大城市病。

Smog in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is composed of particles, nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide emitted by industry, motor vehicles, agricultural work and construction. Beijing’s smog, exacerbated by emissions from Tianjin and Hebei Province, is rooted in its own development.

北京三面环山, 秋冬季一旦出现静风天气,不利于大气污染物的扩散,容易形成雾霾。按照京津冀地区协同发展的安排,北京市已经疏散了钢铁生产、家具生产等一批工业和加工业企业,实现了工业的清洁化。

Surrounded by mountains on three sides, Beijing is most vulnerable to smog on windless days in autumn and winter. As part of the Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, producers and processors of steel and furniture were pushed out of Beijing, which was designated a clean-industry city. 

根据清华大学对雾霾的监测和分析,无论是PM2.5还是PM10,2016年的平均浓度比以前均有一定程度的下降,这得益于中央的环境保护督察的严肃追责,得益于《大气污染防治行动计划》给京津冀地区各地设立的年均浓度考核规定,得益于京津冀地区日益严格的工业、机动车排放等管制措施。

According to monitoring and analysis by Tsinghua University, concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 this year was lower than in years past, an improvement that has been credited to strict enforcement of environmental protection standards by inspectors from the central government, regulations related to the annual average concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Beijing vs. Smog By Chang Jiwen region outlined in the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan and increasingly stringent control of emissions from industry and vehicles in the region.

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但根据观察,2015年前,北京市比较严重雾霾天气的形成往往需要两天以上的酝酿期,而到了2016年,比较严重的雾霾天气往往在一天之内就酝酿形成了。尽管平均浓度比以前有所下降,但是大气污染物的形成却加快了,这说明北京市的大城市病不仅没有得到缓解,有些方面还在继续恶化。

However, casual observers have been singing a different tune. Before 2015, the heavy smog in Beijing would envelope the city after two days of incubation. In 2016, however, heavy smog swept the city the day incubation began. With lower concentration, air pollutants now form more quickly, demonstrating that Beijing’s urban disease has deteriorated in some ways rather than being alleviated.

一个生态城市应当是建立在绿色之中的尊重自然的城市,不得改变自然地貌和自然生态,即绿色是城市的主体,建筑和马路应融合在绿色中。

An ecological city respects nature and doesn’t change the local landforms and ecology. The location should be green and only dotted with buildings and roads

但从空中俯瞰,处于三面环山盆底的北京市,城区地面上除了高楼就是马路,绿色植被成了点缀。高楼之中集聚了大量的人口和产业,产生了大量的生活和生产排放;马路上布满了汽车,由于交通拥堵成为常态,加剧了交通排放的总量;加上北京市缺水,人口集聚过多,地下水抽取过量,区域生态环境受到影响。

In contrast, Beijing’s basin floor, with mountains in three directions, is carpeted with buildings and roads and only dotted by a relative handful of plants. A dense population living in tall buildings, shuttling to numerous companies in other tall buildings, generates tremendous emissions and frequent traffic jams, which in turn increases automobile emissions. Beijing is a city with a dense population but scarce water, so underground water has been over-pumped, decimating the ecology of the region.

可以说,这种不符合自然地貌限制、自然资源禀赋限制和生态环境保护需要的超环境容量发展是造成近年来北京雾霾环绕的主要原因之一。

In conclusion, Beijing’s smog in recent years has mainly been caused by development beyond its environment at capacity. Its development went against the restrictions on landform, natural resources, and environment at protection.

优化城市管理 UPGRADE CITY MANAGEMENT

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解决北京雾霾问题,先要采用优化城市管理的方法缓解大城市病。首先,应当优化城市空间开发利用结构,遵循地理、气象、生态等基本条件,形成可持续的生产、生活和生态空间。

To solve Bejing’s smog problem, the top priority should be upgrading city management, which will immediately ease Beijing’s urban ills. The structure of the city must be optimized. The city’s space should be aligned with basic geographic, atmospheric and ecological conditions to foster scientific and sustainable usage of production, living and ecological space. 

可以推动城市周边发展一批美丽乡村和特色小镇,既补足发展区域的短板,弥补新动能的区域空白,也可净化区域空气,形成生态防线;大力发展城乡污水、垃圾集中处理,提升区域环境质量,为工业排放腾出一定的环境指标。

Beijing can also build ecological villages and specialized small towns. Such projects not only improve backward sectors and create new growth drivers for development, but also clean the air and create an ecological defense line. The city should also strive to develop centralized processing of sewage and waste while spreading out industrial emissions.

其次,应以最坚决的态度执行城市开发利用边界制度,防止各城市主城区、各区县城区、各乡镇城区的范围继续膨胀,超过区域生态环境容量。同时,严格执法,打击环境违法行为,为新动能竞争力的形成奠定坚实的法治基础。

Second, a system limiting the area available for city development should be implemented to prevent the urban areas of cities, districts and counties from swelling beyond the capacity of the ecological environment. At the same time, strict enforcement of environmental violations would create a sound environment for the development of the new growth drivers.

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第三,可以借鉴英国伦敦治理雾霾和中国东南沿海发展的历史经验,开展能源结构改革和自然资源消耗总量控制制度,倒逼城市开展资源节约型和环境友好型改革。2016年,按照北京市的统一部署,各城区和平原农村正在进行煤改电和煤改气工程,已有463个村冬季取暖不烧煤;到2020年,全市新用水量将封顶在31亿立方米。

Third, Bejing can learn from London’s experience of controlling smog and the development of coastal areas of southeast China. The capital can launch reforms of its energy consumption structure and curtail the overall consumption of natural resources, putting pressure on major comprehensive reform to conserve more resources and become environmentally friendly. In 2016, Beijing’s municipal government ordered towns and villages in the plains areas to replace coal with electricity and natural gas. As a result, 463 villages have abandoned the use of coal. By 2020, new added water consumption should be limited to 3.1 billion cubic meters.

此外, 继续优化城市交通,缓解堵车现象,减少交通排放。北京市目前的公共交通资源在高峰时间已经完全饱和, 基本无法在地面再做加法。纽约经验值得借鉴,即在现有地铁路线上建设快速地铁线,只在重点站停靠,解决交通潮汐现象。如此,通过地下公共交通的快速化,缓解地面交通拥堵和污染物排放总量。同时,也要利用经济调控手段倒逼人们选择经济合理的交通方式,调整出行时段和出行区域,进一步管控机动车的污染物排放。

Moreover, the upgrading of traffic infrastructure should continue. Elimination of traffic jams cuts emissions from the roads. During rush hours, Beijing’s public transportation resources are exhausted, and no more space can be created on the ground. We can learn from New York. The American city built express subway lines alongside existing routes to solve its traffic problems. Express trains only stop at important stations, easing traffic jams and curbing emissions on the ground. Meanwhile, to further eliminate emissions from automobiles, economic adjustment can motivate people to choose more ecologically-friendly transportation. Measures to stagger the times people arrive at work and change their routes should also be taken.

最后, 对企业生产实行科学的排放管控措施。2016年冬季, 为了应对雾霾危害, 河北省会石家庄实行了史上最严的限霾令, 规定无论排放是否达标, 一些企业在年底前一律停产, 因此引发了社会各界的争议和资本市场的忧虑。实际上, 可以尝试排污许可管理和总量控制制度, 对于企业的污染物排放实行流量管理, 即在许可证中载明各企业大气污染物的年排放总量和季度排放总量, 让企业合理安排生产总量。

Lastly, emissions from enterprises should be controlled in a scientific manner. This winter, Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei Province, implemented the strictest ever smog-control order, according to which some enterprises had to stop production by the end of 2016 regardless of whether their emissions met the criteria. This was a controversial move that upset the capital market. In fact, the city could control the flow of emissions of enterprises by introducing emission licensing and a quantity control system. The yearly and quarterly permitted quantity of emissions would be specified in the license so enterprises can plan production independently.

区域联动:有区别的共同责任

REGIONAL COOPERATION: COMMON BUT DIFFERENT

RESPONSIBILITIES

生态环境是一个系统,大气环境也不例外。京津冀地区同属一片天空,在复杂的气候条件下,大气污染物会相互输送,因此每个城市尤其是北京地区的雾霾治理不能完全靠自己,北京雾霾治理要在区域协同发展的格局中统筹开展。

The ecology is a large system, as is the atmosphere. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province share an atmosphere. Under complicated weather conditions, air pollutants move throughout the region. Any one city in the region, Beijing in particular, cannot clean up smog on its own. Beijing’s smog should be addressed via coordinated efforts across the whole region._ueditor_page_break_tag_

共同但有区别责任原则是气候变化国际应对的一个基本原则, 也可以为区域雾霾的联合防治提供借鉴和参考。大气污染联防联控强调各区域和各领域共同的大气污染防治责任, 但是这种共同责任是有区别的。

Common but different responsibility is a basic principle of international approaches to climate change, which also serve as references for the joint prevention and treatment of smog in this region. Coordinated interregional prevention and control efforts call for common but different responsibilities in terms of preventing and controlling air pollution emanating from a variety of areas and sectors.

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有区别的责任体现在不同发展程度的区域之间,体现在不同的行业或者领域之间:如工业大类中的采矿业、制造业等行业的排放量远远大于农业排放量,第三产业中的交通运输业排放的危害远远大于农业排放的危害,因此,工业、农业和第三产业在大气污染联防联控的责任承担方面应当实行有区别的责任原则;

Regionally different responsibilities are organized according to different levels of development, different industries and different sectors. For instance, emissions from mining and manufacturing far exceed those of agriculture, and emissions from transportation related to tertiary industry result in much greater harm to the environment than those of agriculture. Therefore, industry, agriculture and tertiary industry should have different responsibilities in terms of reducing air pollution within common coordinated interregional prevention and control efforts.

同一行业内不同污染程度的企业承担的责任不同,如火电厂、冶炼厂、水泥厂等,这些高耗能的企业既排放大量的细颗粒物,又排放大量的硫氧化物、氮氧化物等污染物质,在整个减排过程中应承担主要责任;

Enterprises in the same sector have different responsibilities according to the different degrees of damage they do to the environment. High-energyconsuming enterprises such as thermal power plants, foundries and cement factories, which emit a great amount of fine particulate matter, sulfur oxides, and nitric oxides, have big responsibilities to reduce emission.

从综合区域和行业的特点来看,若某区域或行业排放总量较大,其地方政府与行业部门就应当承担主要的管制责任。以京津冀地区为例,北京应当对交通排放管制承担主要的监管责任,而河北应当对其工业减排承担主要的监管责任。

From the broader view of regions and industries, local governments of regions with greater emissions should take greater responsibilities, as should departments that oversee industries with greater emissions. In the case of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Beijing should take greater responsibilities on transportation emission control, while Hebei should take greater responsibilities to curb industrial emissions.

治霾战略需要历史耐心

CONTROLLING SMOG PATIENTLY

雾霾问题不仅是中国面临的现实问题,也是所有经济快速发展的转型国家所面临的社会现实。在历史上,英国、美国等发达国家的部分地区在转型过程中也遭受了为期10年以上的严重雾霾。最近几年,除了中国以外,雾霾还横扫了印度、越南等经济快速发展的发展中国家,如2016年11月,印度新德里就遭受了10年以来最严重的雾霾。

Smog is not a problem unique to China. Every country that has developed rapidly has experienced it. Parts of Britain and the U.S. endured smog for over ten years during the height of the countries’ economic transformations. In recent years, smog has also gripped countries with high-speed growth such as India and Vietnam. In November of last year, India’s New Delhi suffered the heaviest smog of the decade.

总体来说,北京雾霾治理要坚持“顶部论”的认识论,即最近几年和今后若干年,环境污染物的排放总量会处于历史高位,复合型污染的特征更加明显,环境质量状况非常复杂。

In general, concerned departments should keep in mind that in the near future, overall pollution will remain high, and characteristics of multiple types of pollutants will become even more obvious. Environmental conditions may become even more complicated.

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今后10年,中国的主要污染物排放总体上处于跨越峰值并进入下降通道的转折期,预计在2022年至2025年,主要污染物排放总量的拐点可能全面到来。但是目前,京津冀地区PM2.5年均浓度经过治理虽然有所下降,PM2.5前体物的浓度仍然是发达国家的10倍左右。未来5到10年内,中国将处于环境与经济发展矛盾的凸显期和环境标准及要求的提高期,遇上经济下行压力期,过关越坎的难度更大,艰巨性前所未有。

Over the next ten years, China’s emissions will reach a turning point, but they will peak before decreasing. Analysts predict that the turning point will take place sometime between 2022 and 2025. At present, however, the annual concentration of PM2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has decreased to some extent since control measures have been adopted,but still measures about ten times that of developed countries. In the next five to ten years, China will witness a remarkable collision between environmental protection and economic development, and environmental quality standards will improve during this period. Moreover, since China’s economy faces pressure from an economic slowdown, the combined difficulties will be unprecedented._ueditor_page_break_tag_

同时, 雾霾治理也要坚持“ 阶段论” 的认识论, 即既要有解决环境问题的历史紧迫感, 在战略部署上也要有适当的历史耐心, 以与经济社会发展相协调、污染防治与生态建设相结合的方式, 在发展中科学、稳妥、分阶段地解决环境问题。

Meanwhile, policymakers addressing smog need a sense of urgency as well as patience. Environmental problems should be solved scientifically, appropriately, and in stages. Measures for the prevention and control of smog should be coordinated with economic and societal development and combined with ecological improvement measures.

中国整体上正在走出先污染后治理的历史困局,一些发达地区已经初步实现了经济发展和环境保护的良性循环。但在中西部不少地区,边污染边治理、边破坏边修复的状况可能还会持续一段时间。如果坚持努力推进治标与治本措施,环境恶化的现象在2020年前可能得到根本遏制, 中国于2030年进入制造强国的行列后,经济发展和环境保护协同的局面有可能全面形成。这说明,雾霾治理要遵循经济发展和环境保护的基本规律,既不可懈怠,也不可冒进。

As a whole, China is emerging from the pollution trap of its development trajectory. Some modernized areas have already achieved a healthy and sustainable circle of development and environmental protection. However, in many places in central and western China, the model of treating while polluting and restoring after destroying may continue to endure for some time. If the country sticks to both temporary and permanent measures, environmental deterioration could be stopped by 2020. By 2030, the manufacturing powerhouse of China could enjoy the harmony of economic development and environmental protection. Smog control must follow the basic rules of economic development and environmental protection. Inertia as well as ill-advised rushes to action should both be avoided.

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